We're DONE With Masks!

It is really sad that people will attack one another over this.  But then what can we expect anymore as the nation is pulled apart by ignorance and panic.  

ANYONE ELSE CONFUSED LATELY?

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What We Should ALL Be Doing Right Now!

the Adley Show

Having followed, researched and written about this new health phenomena since the end of January, I am growing a bit weary of the information overload and confusion.  

I'm also quite weary that this serious situation has morphed more into politics, political bashing, political correctness and pure greed than using common sense.  It was time for us all to revisit our need for better personal hygiene and thoughtfulness of others.  

Businesses have been so focused on profit at any cost that employees, like the frog in the pan of cold water, have allowed themselves to be increasingly abused.  

And spending more than eight hours in an open-plan environment, where even musical desks is the rule, has hurt us all.  When did staying home from work become unwise and considerate of others?

It is a good thing for all of us to take time to reflect about what IS important in our lives.  Obviously, with more than 200,000 deaths around the globe, part of that reflection is forcing us to consider our own mortality and personal responsibilities.  

The virus is silent and invisible and, like some science fiction villain, no one is quite sure where it is lurking.

I've endeavoured to present information that matters from serious and reputable sources rather than fall into conspiracy theories or sourcing information from those who just want to sell their brand of modern 'snake oil' or bias.  

But I'm feeling a bit like this woman in the video.  What about you?

MILLIONS AND ONE

The last serious pandemic you might not have been aware of  was the H1N1 (swine flu) in 2009.  It is estimated the H1N1 flu pandemic affected 11 to 21 percent of the, then, global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people —more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic.

Actual fatalities reported ranged between 12,000 and 18,000.  However, a 2012 study by the CDC estimated about 284,000 perished from H1N1 virus worldwide but could have been as many as 575,000 deaths.

We Will Never Know

As is happening now with COVID-19, we will never know the true numbers for several reasons: 

• There is no internationally shared standard of identifying the disease in progress.  There are many different ways the virus has been identified from anecdotal evidence to one of the different test kits
• There is no standard way to know how many people had the virus without symptoms or not who have recovered.  What would be needed for this is an internationally-standard antibody test would show the disease existed in someone
• There is no central, trusted global body collecting accurate statistics.
• There is no shared, standard definition of ‘what defines a death from COVID-19’.  For example: is a death where there were complications from existing conditions (such as heart disease) attributable to COVID-19?  If not, what circumstances define a ‘COVID-19 death’?  Should someone who had a heart attack and died -- who was also confirmed as having the virus (or from the treatment of the virus) be listed as a heart attack or a COVID-19 death?
• Healthcare workers are busy saving lives and can’t be expected to take time for too much paperwork.  

For me, contracting H1N1 virus was a miserable and surprisingly abrupt experience that I thankfully survived.  Not the best memory, but I learned what self-quarantine was about.  And during my convalescence I thought about my father.

The Spanish Flu

Of course, as of today, the number of deaths from COVID-19 pales in comparison to the Spanish flu of 1918-19 (A/H1N1).   Keeping that in mind with what's going on today helps keep this tragedy in some perspective.  

The Spanish Flu

The Spanish Flu was an amazing disease that:

• Raged globally from January 1918 to December 1920. 
• Infected around 500 million people (about a quarter of the entire global population at the time). 
• Took a death toll -- like today -- will never be known, but estimates range from 17 to 50 million to as many as 100 million individuals who died (more than all those who died from WWI, WWII, the Korean and Viet Nam War).
• Statistics could not keep up with, were kept manually and some countries never bothered to keep them. 
• Spread despite long-distance transportation being limited to train and ocean liner
• Was constrained because there were no sophisticated communications beyond telegraph
• Arrived before there were computers to build accurate statistical models. 
• Like the proverbial ‘fighting the fire in front of you’ with whatever you have to fight with, decimated the health and spirit of many countries.  

Personal Experience

There would be few alive today with the memory of the Spanish Flu.  Few lived through this time where it was common to anticipate and adjust to the rapid, unexpected loss of sweet loved ones.

Historically, it was not the best of times to be fighting an invisible enemy.  World War I was in progress, people, even in ‘developed’ nations were malnourished and good hygiene was unrecognised. 

Healthcare was primitive enough to consider the flu 'just bad air'.  Medical (not natural) immunisation was barely known.  There were no antibiotics.  People were still being bled to rebalance the ‘humours’.  Most around the world lived in poor, crowded structures without indoor plumbing and vigorous vermin for neighbours.  

When my Dad was sent back early from serving in World War I (He had been mustard-gassed not long after he got to his overseas post.), he arrived at one of the many hot spots in the United States.  This one in Ohio.  He found a job working in what was called a 'Pest House' – sort of a pre-hospital -- for those who were ill with the symptoms of this unknown disease. 

Pest House

He described the endless number of people who arrived day and night at this long, narrow and rather simple building with timber walls, tin roof and cement floor.  

As individuals grew too ill to be cared for at home, they were brought to or dumped at the Pest House.  The names of these individuals were usually recorded in a logbook.  They were carefully laid on cots/ pallets in the front section. 

As the disease progressed, there were stages as they grew increasingly incapacitated.  When each stage was reached (meaning their symptoms were worsening), they were moved further back into the crowded, noisy structure.  Almost no one recovered. 

Each 'section of ‘increased seriousness' was separated from others by heavy, green wool army blankets or waxed tarpaulins hung from wire strung from one side of the building to the other.  

My Dad, being clever with his hands, was consigned to working outside the last section.  He carried water, ran errands to keep some food supplies for the other workers and nurses and he built coffins for the bodies. 

Yet the number of deaths grew too rapidly for him to keep up.  Eventually, the bodies were collected and unceremoniously buried as quickly as possible, in crudely marked or unmarked mass graves -- without coffins or mourners.

Thoughts in Conclusion

What dark times!  So many life-changing lessons he shared with me as I sat spellbound by his memories.  To the day he died -- at home -- he was never in a hospital but twice.  Both times he was unconscious and unable to protest.  He resisted doctors and medicines (but quinine, aspirin and whisky) all his life.    

From his one example, my brother and I grew up with the value of taking good care of our health and our belongings.  We learned to mend and patch items, save things.  We learned to buy a bit extra of something when there was abundance.  We were taught to can and dry foods.  

We watched how important it was to check regularly on our family, friends and neighbours.  We learned how to fish, search for safe mushrooms and wild foods in the forest and hunt and dress our catch. 

We were entrusted with special recipes that could keep someone well-fed on next to nothing and we learned about the value of good hygiene and lots of sunshine and … the value of family love.  

I wonder what the lessons will be for the world from this latest reminder of how fragile we are and how every moment is precious.

HOW YOU CAN SUPPORT HEALTHCARE WORKERS

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A Doctor Explains How to Make the Safest Face Mask

I learned early on in my life the absolute joy of helping others in personal ways.  Our grade school class was approached by the Red Cross to knit blankets for people in poorly-equipped hospitals in Europe where it was unusually cold that year.  

We were given boxes of a light grey yarn and number nine knitting needles.  It was great!  The entire class knit everywhere they were for months and produced over a hundred very warm lap blankets.  These were sent to help others one-to-one. 

Lost Sense of Community

As I've grown up, it seems this sense of community has been lost and in all kinds of tragedies we are told, 'Don't send anything other than money.'  

The personal involvement and satisfaction of doing something more than pushing a few buttons has been lost.  So here is a way to help.  The Centres for Disease Control are recommending wearing cloth masks when we go out into the public.

Healthcare Workers Will Die Without Masks!  

However, physicans, healthcare workers and support staff working in our hospitals and clinics must have masks if they are to survive the battle to save the lives of those infected with COVID-19.  

There are not enough masks for them until manufacturing catches up -- so if everyone buys up the N95 surgical masks on the market -- far too many of our health care providers will die.  What a dilemma!  

Your Mission

Yet, there is a way to make masks that are as just as protective as the video above illustrates.  Make some for yourself and your family and if times grow even more difficult these homemade masks could also support the healthcare workers.  

Finally, be sure to read THE SEGMENT on masks so you wear them in a healthy way.

IS IT OVER YET?

We are all a bit over the novelty of working from home, being socially distant from friends and not being able to go places we like to be -- a cafe, sports event, to the movies or grocery shopping.  We all have, what my Dad called, cabin fever and are eagerly looking for a date when this will all be over!  

If you've been following this blog, you've noticed I update the COVID-19 'reported' statistics twice a day - the number of 'reported' cases, the number of 'reported' critical cases and the number of 'reported' deaths.  

'Reported'

I put the word 'reported' in quotes each time because some countries are too busy fighting the virus attacking their people to be worried about keeping stats, some do not have enough test kits, some are not forthcoming with the truth about their statistics for political reasons and some are changing strategies (such as dramatically increasing testing) which impacts their statistics when compared to other countries.  

We must all be patient and understand that until this is over, accurate data will not be available -- in some countries, we may never know the extent of the infection or the death rate, etc.

Unexpected benefits to find during this journey, such as:

If we are honest, there are some positive benefits we are beginning to realise, such as how we are:

• Starting to look more closely at the value of family, friends and colleagues/ workmates
• Finding creative ways to reach out to loved ones and long-lost friends
• Learning how to be productive from home, despite the distractions
• Realising how satisfying it is to have some time to think and reflect on what is important in our lives  
• Revisiting simple preventative measures to keep us healthier into the future
• Awakening to the surprising value of science and mathematics in our daily life.  

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

In an effort to stimulate your thinking again (after the amazing simulator from the article before this one) here is a way to understand 'the light at the end of the tunnel' - a question in everyone's heart and mind - when will this all be over!  

I found it fascinating, however, I apologise because it will only take up a bit over seven minutes of your long day today. 

Enjoy!

Thanks to the Brilliant work of 

Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting

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How to Tell if We're Beating COVID-19

Even more Mathematics:

This is a brilliant explanation of 'exponential'.  

Thanks to 3Blue1Brown and

Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia

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Exponential Growth and Epidemics

A BENEFICIAL PANDEMIC SIMULATION 'GAME'

When I began posting this blog, there were only 6,171 people reported infected with COVID-19, mostly in one province in China.  Only 133 had been reported to have died and they hadn't thought to track those who were reported in critical condition.  

Today:

• 590,628 are confirmed infected (this means they have had a test for the virus and had a positive result for the presence of COVID-19)
• 22,086 are reported to be in critical condition (and it is primarily out of this base that most deaths come)
• 26,966 have been reported to have died

Also since the world began to react to the surprise, sinister and invisible enemy, different moderating procedures have been put in place, such as washing your hands well and often, social distancing and closing various social gatherings, including sports events and even churches, etc.  

Every day there are people who are doing their part to help contain the virus through the many common-sense recommendations.  Yet, there remain too many (even one is too many!) who are not willing to change their behaviours, no matter how much negative impact it may have -- or even knowing people will die because of this carelessness.

Sinister and Invisible

What is especially challenging about this virus is that you can be infected and have no symptoms (so you don't feel you should be overly careful).  However, even when someone is infected and with no symptoms, they can infect others -- an invisible enemy!

Use this Time Well

I discovered a fascinating tool that will help us appreciate the seriousness of being faithful to the rules.  Whether you are a 'mathematic visual', a 'creative visual' or a 'curious theorist' - there is great appeal in this exploration tool.  

I suppose some do not care much, but I'm hoping this video might help you change your own mind.  

It can certainly help all of us better understand -- in a personal way -- the immense value of keeping the simple rules of social distancing, better hygiene and patience.  

We all have a part to play to moderate the ongoing effects of this pandemic.  COVID-19 will change our lives in good ways once we travel through the difficulties and pain.  

Here are thousands of reasons to stick to

social distancing, handwashing and staying home!  

Use this simulation video to convince yourself!

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Special thanks to Kevin Simler at 

Melting Asphalt for the amazing simulations.

LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

The lack of sensible articles and information is disappointing when we all are looking for trusted resources to help keep us safe and healthy during this crisis.  Politicising the issues, the profiteering and panic are not helping anyone.  

We will get through this and I hope this blog is serving you well.  

Some of you have asked which sites I am sourcing as I endeavour to base these articles on the most reliable and accurate data and information.  Here are some excellent sites I can recommend.  Do not hesitate to inform me of ones you are finding particularly helpful.  

Just click on the titles that are centred:

1. Coronavirus Update 

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. Worldometer is owned by Dadax, an independent company. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation.

Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

We have licensed our counters at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), to BBC News, and to the U2 concert, among others.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books, in more than 6,000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

2. Center for Systems Science and Engineering 

This is the Johns Hopkins site and features an interactive map documenting the case activity throughout the world.

3. Dr John Campbell YouTubes

Dr Campbell is a qualified medical educator who resides in the UK.  His charming and humble approach is admirable.  He breaks down the basics in easy-to-understand-and-apply ways.  

And here is a new one that has come to my attention today:

4. Global Health Security Index

This innovative and interactive world map, covers the key issues, including comparing and evaluating national preventative and management measures.  

The Global Health Security Index was "developed with guidance from an international panel of experts from 13 countries, with research by the Economist Intelligence Unit," The Washington Post reported last year. "More than 100 researchers spent a year collecting and validating publicly available data.”

I will continue to update the key statistics twice a day and feature practical information for your benefit.  Please stay safe, observe your national restrictions to the letter, wash your hands properly and stay home.  This is NOT a drill!

A BRILLIANT TED TALK FOR TODAY IN JUST 21 MINUTES

Laurie Garrett, author of The Coming Plague, (In this case the bird flu pandemic of 1997) with some learnings from previous pandemics.

Highlights:

• Commercial travel had completely disrupted the existing research regarding how to react to various earlier pandemics because it affects the rate of spread.
• The H5N1 virus was initially covered up for commercial and political reasons.
• Today in response to a 'surprise pandemic' producing a vaccine is a very slow process.  Estimates of a maximum capacity of doses would be about 260 million that could be quickly manufactured.
• One major problem was to know who was in charge.
• Lots of competition was seen for protective gear and medical equipment and drugs.
• There were no uniform quarantine or protective gear (for health-care workers) standards and procedures
• Tamiflu, although showing potential was discovered to be more problematic than helpful
• Although unimagined amounts of funds had been designated for preparedness in the USA as the H5N1 was spreading:
• Only 15 states had been certified as capable of distributing drugs and antibiotics from the stockpile (of then Tamiflu)
• Half the States in the USA were predicted to run out of available hospital beds within TWO weeks of the pandemic
• Forty states faced a nursing shortage

So What?

• It could take up to 18-24 months for a pandemic to 'wear itself out'
• A pandemic typically comes in waves.  With the H5N1 pandemic, the damage done in the first wave took its toll on the existing healthcare workers and when it came back around for a second wave, there were far fewer healthcare workers alive to help
• The 1918 Spanish Flu was especially lethal because the antibodies (natural defence 'fighters' within our bodies) over-reacted in confusion and the victim drowned as their lungs filled up with the fluids that resulted from the fight
• There is no recommended or practical hope in stockpiling medical support gear (masks, drugs, water, food, etc.)  It would prove to be as ineffective as the 1950s Civil Defense Bomb Shelters.  The solution instead will come as neighbourhoods and communities begin to work together to support each other.

Bottom line  

While you are healthy:

• Avoid exposure to anyone who is, or maybe, infected.  
• Avoid crowds and public transportation
• Wash your hands if you return from being outside (remember to use a bar of soap, rather than liquid and sing Happy Birthday twice!)
• Get ample sleep (eight hours is a goal)

If you feel sick:

• Stay home
• Check the most common symptoms (found on this link).
• Take your temperature. A high temperature is a warning.
• Call your local health provider or COVID-19 hotline in your city or state to get their advice as to your next steps.

Five Types of Reactions  

Because many of those in affected countries are free to make their own decisions, who do not respond easily or well to dictated mandates, managing this virus is more difficult in free nations.  

1. Those busy buying up all the toilet paper and masks causing unnecessary panic and lack for others.
2. Those over-reacting to the danger of the virus, living in fear of  'inevitable doom'.
3. Those not aware of -- or not respecting -- the 'invisible nature' of the virus (that can dwell within someone, produce no symptoms and infect others around them).
4. Those so concerned with commercial interests, they are ignoring the reality of the dangers.
5. Those taking an even-handed and informed attitude.

If individuals only do what they think is right in their own eyes and do not listen to the advice of those who must lead us now, many will die around the world.  This is not a drill!

DO I HAVE COVID-19?

  

Almost all of us are suggestable and with the relentless focus on washing your hands and social distancing, it is easy to see COVID-19 virus lurking all over the place.  And you could be right.  The danger comes when you start to wonder if being fatigued or coughing or sneezing a few times spells ‘doom’ for you.  

First and foremost, remember 81% of those who do become infected will have a mild case, with sometimes undetectable symptoms.  This is why COVID-19 is so sinister – people can be spreading it and feel alright.

Medical researchers have been collating data about the most prevalent symptoms.  Here is a list of the most common to the less common -- as a percentage -- experienced in those who have had the virus:

Ø 88% - Higher than normal fever

Ø 68% - Dry cough

Ø 38% - Fatigue

Ø 33% - Coughing up phlegm

Ø 19% - Shortness of breath

Ø 15% - Bone or joint pain

Ø 14% - Sore throat

Ø 14% - Headache

Ø 11% - Chills

Ø 5% -  Nausea or vomiting

Ø 5% -  Stuffy nose

Ø 4% -  Diarrhoea

Ø 1% -  Coughing up blood

Ø 1% -  Swollen eyes

If you feel ill -- and have a combination of the most common symptoms -- stay home and away from others.  CALL your doctor, health clinic or emergency room (Do not just show up!) for advice as to what the best action is for you.  

In many, if not all, developed countries, there will be a special, local number you can call to get advice.  Make a note of it now and put it in your phone or on a notepad, so you don't have to go look it up if you need it for yourself, a loved one or friend  

Only a doctor or professional health care provider can say for sure, and depending on your medical history, they may advise you to self-isolate or be admitted to a hospital for acute care.

CAREFUL WHAT YOU TOUCH

A new study has indicated how long the COVID-19 remains active circulating in the air and on surfaces.  Take time to read this and be wise with what you touch. 

Your best defence

• ·        If you are unwell or in a high-risk group, stay home. 
• ·        If you go out, be careful what you touch (see below).
• ·        Wash your hands correctly, every chance you get with soap and water for at least long enough to sing ‘Happy Birthday’ twice (to yourself, of course).
• ·        Avoid using an air-hand-dryer (and try to be out of a restroom if someone is using one to dry their hands).
• ·        Resist touching your face, rubbing your eyes or touching your lips!

This Virus Lives Too Long

This virus seems to have a long life and someone who is infected may spread the disease without feeling sick for, what is thought to be at least 14 days before symptoms appear. 

When someone who is infected with COVID-19, for example, coughs or sneezes openly or into the air or into their hand, droplets carrying the virus will begin to circulate in the air (up to two meters). 

NOTE:  Best way to thwart a surprise sneeze or cough is to always have a fresh tissue or paper towel with you and if you don’t sneeze or cough into your elbow.  Be sure to cover your mouth carefully.  With a tissue or paper towel, fold it so the potentially contaminated surface is inside and throw it in a waste bin.

If the person tries to use their hand to ‘catch’ the cough or sneeze, anything they touch afterwards (until they properly wash their hands), can infect others. 

Common Ways It Spreads

Here are common ways the virus can pose an invisible threat to others from circulating in the area or lurking on surfaces:

• ·        After an open, careless cough or sneeze
• ·        From someone touching surfaces with ‘dirty’ hands
• ·        From being in a space where someone is using an air-hand-dryer
• ·        When someone flushes the toilet, the virus circulates in those droplets that are splashed up

Longevity of COVID-19 in the Air / on Surfaces

Research, published in the ‘medRxiv’ depository has now conformed length of time the virus can live outside a person and infect others:

• Circulating in the air for up to three hours
• On surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.

The length of life differs with what the virus lands on, such as:

• ·        Coper surfaces - up to four hours
• ·        Cardboard  - up to 24 hours
• ·        Stainless steel and plastic  - between two to three days

Another study published in February estimated that if COVID-19 behaves in a similar way as other coronaviruses (such as SARS or MERS), it could live on metal, glass and plastic surfaces for up to nine days

NOTE:  To compare this to the common, seasonal flu, the flu virus can live on surfaces for only about 48 hours.

A Little Basic Science

One positive benefit from COVID-19 is that it reminds us of some basic science, such as the differences between a bacterium and a virus.

COVID-19 is a specific strain of virus.  The damage it does within someone's system can cause other/secondary infections, such as pneumonia.  Pneumonia is a bacterial infection.  So, what is the difference?

When we have a virus, we need to self-isolate, drink plenty of fluids, eat lightly and rest.  (It’s best to get an annual flu-shots early, especially if you are at high-risk). 

Typically, if you are not someone at risk (such as someone with weakened health – see below) your body’s defence system will most likely overwhelm the virus and you will be well again.  Antibiotics are no help at all against a virus. 

Virus

When you have a cold, for example, it is caused by a virus.  Many insist they need antibiotics when they feel sick, but they are not effective against viruses. 

Bacterium

On the other hand, if you have bronchitis or pneumonia, they are caused by a bacterial infection and maybe a result of first having a virus.  They do not typically respond to simple rest and fluids and may require antibiotics to fight off the disease.

Here is a great video to explain just some of the differences between the two and how differently they infect and grow within our bodies to make us sick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_9DXEnEd-Q

Dr. Finch’s Lab:  Viruses vs. Bacteria | What's The Difference?

Most at Risk 

Statistics are still not reliable enough, but there are some common denominators with those who contract the virus and then develop a serious case and then die.  Those most at risk, include:

• ·       The aged (especially those older than 60 years)
• ·       Transplant patients
• ·       Chronically ill
• ·       Those with an auto-immune disease
• ·       HIV patients
• ·       High blood pressure
• ·       Lung diseases – COPD Asthma
• ·       Diabetes Mellitus
• ·       Those with other pre-existing conditions

It will take time to refine this list, but if someone is dealing with a serious or chronic condition, their system is already weak and so it makes sense. 

What has proven notable about COVID-19 is that children do not seem to be so vulnerable to the virus.  More data needs to be collected, verified and collated to substantiate this.

Those especially in the ‘firing line’

With that list in mind, it is obvious there are some individuals who are more vulnerable, not for the condition of their health, but because they are more likely to be exposed to those who have COVID-19. 

This is a key reason why protective medical gear must be available for these individuals, such as:

• ·       Health care workers
• ·       Public transportation workers
• ·       First Responders
• ·       Support and administrative staff in hospitals and clinics
• ·       Retail staff
• ·       Press

High-Risk Environments

If you feel unwell, stay home.  If you know you have been exposed to someone who is infected (or was in close contact with someone who has the virus) stay home (call the doctor, clinic or hospital emergency room and follow their directions. 

Being careful of where you go is most important, now.  Remember initial observations seem to indicate that someone can be infected, be spreading the virus to others and yet not show symptoms.  

Avoid, if at all possible, high-risk environments, such as:

• ·       Hospitals, clinics, doctor’s offices
• ·       Universities
• ·       Correction Facilities/Prisons
• ·       Aged Care facilities
• ·       Sports Events
• ·       Conferences
• ·       Large group gatherings
• ·       Government services centres 

Conclusion 

Keep in mind, initial statistics indicate that eighty-one per cent of those who contract the virus will have a mild to very mild form.  

If you suspect you have been exposed to COVID-19, stay home, call your health-care provider and follow their directions.  They will know the best strategy to follow.