DOUBLING TIME?

Chris Martinson of Peak Prosperity began to follow COVID-19 from the early days.  

by Peak Prosperity Group

Key Points of this Video

A. Focus on the spread and doubling time of the virus in Italy and the unexpected hotspot in Iran.

B. Transmission speed and length of time the virus is transmissible is still being researched.  

C. Quarantine efforts may require additional creative strategy.  

NEW WAYS COVID-19 IS SPREAD

There is a surprising new group of infected individuals in Iran, with five dead already.  Strangely enough, there is no identified link with China and Iran.  More to come on that.

The spread of the virus is thought to resemble the spread of other viruses.  Here are the ways COVID-19 is being documented and suspected of spreading?

Droplets with the virus in them

Droplets of moisture containing the virus that someone simply breathes out or when they cough or sneeze them out.  These droplets circulate in the air and can be breathed in by another.  

The infected droplets also land on surfaces (distances of up to 2-3 meters - 6 feet) holding the virus alive to be picked up by another on their hands and then accidentally transferred to their mouth, nose, eyes or other mucous membranes.  

Aerated Human Waste

Through the aeration of human waste -- solid and liquid when someone uses the toilet and flushes it.  Very small droplets containing the virus can circulate in the air and land on various surfaces.  

From then, others who may be in a public restroom can be exposed to the virus that lands on surfaces and breathed in while it is circulating in the air.

Sewage

In sewage.  There are many ways sewage could leak out and infect individuals, including pipes within dwellings that are not set up properly and allow small leaks.  Also, when sewage pipes from houses and throughout cities have leaks or break.  

Finally, from sewage treatment plants.  Further research needs to be done regarding the spread of the virus through sewage needs to be done to formalise how this will be managed and the significance of the threat through this method.

Multi-dwellings

There are reports of the virus spreading within multi-dwellings.  A good example is how the virus has been discovered and seems to have spread throughout more than one cruise ships, such as the Diamond Princess docked in Japan.  

But also there is concern that the virus may spread within multi-dwellings, such as apartment houses (and the possibility certainly exists for spread within office buildings).  

These multi-dwellings are proving to be inadvertent laboratories that selectively isolate a group of individuals.  Health care researchers then can document the spread of the virus within discrete populations.  Spread within these types of structures could happen from: 

• contaminated air circulating through central heating/air conditioning
• touching infected surfaces (elevator doors or buttons, walls, etc.)  As the virus can live outside the body for a yet to be substantiated time and infect others when they touch these same surfaces or breathe in the virus circulating in the air.   

WASH YOUR HANDS THOROUGHLY!

Just the Beginning

Unanticipated Challenges from COVID-19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLHRgR1TqE

INTENTIONAL / ACCIDENTAL AMBIGUITY

The Chinese are changing the way they are counting their statistics again.  

Do not be fooled.  It is easy to understand that China is still struggling with identifying and treating the high numbers of those infected in just the Wuhan Province.  

They are also dealing with the problem of managing the growing significance of potential economic impact this pandemic is presently having on China -- and is estimated to have on their nation long into the future.  

Here are two important videos to consider

Treatment facilities 

Reporters in Asia

And this one about reporters in Asia being expelled for their reporting about how things are developing with COVID-19

Growth Graphs of COVID-19 since 22 January 2020

Reported Confirmed Number of Individuals
Infected with COVID-19

NOTE:  Both charts have a simple trend line to indicate a possible growth direction.

To view the chart larger, simply click on it.

Reported Confirmed Number of Individuals
Who have Died from COVID-19

To view the chart larger, simply click on it.

Interview with Dr. John Campbell

Key Points to Note from the Interview

• Zoonotic infection - has existed in animals since the 1960s and jumped from animals to humans and is jumping from human to human.
• Death rates comparison:
• SARS (10% deathrate - only those exhibiting symptoms transmit the virus)  
• COVID-19 2% deathrate but easy to transmit to others) 
• MERS (35% deathrate harder to transmit)
• Individuals who have the illness can spread the virus without feeling sick
• Virus spreads through breathing, sneezing and coughing when the droplets within an infected person are 'shot' into the air 
• If the droplets are breathed in by those nearby or fall on the eye, mouth or surfaces, where it can live perhaps for up to 14 or more days when it is still alive and is transferred through a mucous membrane such as the eye, mouth, nose.
• WASH YOUR HANDS THOROUGHLY 
• There are some individuals with weaker immune systems or other health difficulties (the aged, the unwell and children) who are especially suspectable to the disease

Many unknowns at this time and the virus may still change.  But if nothing changes from now, the virus may peak by May this year and how the virus is managed within China and how other nations react to the disease.  

Be Wise - Be Alert

It is early days in the development and understanding of this new disease and it is easy to be soothed into ignoring the potential threat it may pose.  It is imperative to be self-aware and to stay up-to-date on the developments of the COVID-19 virus.  

Since I began monitoring and researching the growth of interest in this virus, I've noticed reporting is either sensationalism or 'no worries, she'll be right, mate' attitudes with much of what I'm finding.  My hope is that I will provide resources that are balanced and helpful.  

Symptoms 

The disease is not new in animals, but it is new in humans and that is why it is so dangerous (more on that in another article).  It seems the disease was first noted by a physician in China on 3 December.  Much is still unknown, but here are what is thought to be the symptoms as of today:

Because it is the annual flu season, it is difficult to recognise if someone just has the flu, a cold or COVID-19.  

Primarily, COVID-19 affects the lungs.  It starts with a bit of a fever, then a dry cough (meaning when you cough, no mucus is produced).  However, there is rarely sneezing and a runny nose. 

After a week, those infected have difficulty breathing - a sense of shortness of breath.  This is when people are travelling to a hospital for help.

Here is a helpful infographic that the BBC put together:  

A significant challenge with identifying, managing and treating this disease is that much is still unknown about how it is behaving.  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) initially chose to hide the existence and seriousness of the virus.  Now, they are overwhelmed with the difficulties this choice has made for their people as the number of cases increase exponentially.  

Information coming out of China is still being hampered and the government has said, 'No thanks' to outside help.  As the disease has now spread to 28 other countries (with five deaths outside China), it is under the watchful eye of the World Health Organisation (WHO).    

Considering the degree of readiness some developed countries enjoy it can be easy to forget other nations are not just ill-prepared but extremely vulnerable.   My hope is that the CCP will relent their grip on the facts and allow other medical research professionals to come to their aid before poorer countries are devastated.

Perspective from 1918

The Spanish Flu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY

In 1918, something strange and new began to kill people all around the globe and no one was sure what to do about it.  

The history of this disease has provided a template for us today as COVID-19 develops.  It is also why so many people are concerned about the future developments of this global pandemic.  

Please take time to watch this eleven-minute video and consider how you will adjust your life to accommodate an increase in infection near you.