A BENEFICIAL PANDEMIC SIMULATION 'GAME'

When I began posting this blog, there were only 6,171 people reported infected with COVID-19, mostly in one province in China.  Only 133 had been reported to have died and they hadn't thought to track those who were reported in critical condition.  

Today:

• 590,628 are confirmed infected (this means they have had a test for the virus and had a positive result for the presence of COVID-19)
• 22,086 are reported to be in critical condition (and it is primarily out of this base that most deaths come)
• 26,966 have been reported to have died

Also since the world began to react to the surprise, sinister and invisible enemy, different moderating procedures have been put in place, such as washing your hands well and often, social distancing and closing various social gatherings, including sports events and even churches, etc.  

Every day there are people who are doing their part to help contain the virus through the many common-sense recommendations.  Yet, there remain too many (even one is too many!) who are not willing to change their behaviours, no matter how much negative impact it may have -- or even knowing people will die because of this carelessness.

Sinister and Invisible

What is especially challenging about this virus is that you can be infected and have no symptoms (so you don't feel you should be overly careful).  However, even when someone is infected and with no symptoms, they can infect others -- an invisible enemy!

Use this Time Well

I discovered a fascinating tool that will help us appreciate the seriousness of being faithful to the rules.  Whether you are a 'mathematic visual', a 'creative visual' or a 'curious theorist' - there is great appeal in this exploration tool.  

I suppose some do not care much, but I'm hoping this video might help you change your own mind.  

It can certainly help all of us better understand -- in a personal way -- the immense value of keeping the simple rules of social distancing, better hygiene and patience.  

We all have a part to play to moderate the ongoing effects of this pandemic.  COVID-19 will change our lives in good ways once we travel through the difficulties and pain.  

Here are thousands of reasons to stick to

social distancing, handwashing and staying home!  

Use this simulation video to convince yourself!

Click the picture or copy and paste

 this link into your browser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

or search YouTube for Simulating an epidemic

Special thanks to Kevin Simler at 

Melting Asphalt for the amazing simulations.

LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

The lack of sensible articles and information is disappointing when we all are looking for trusted resources to help keep us safe and healthy during this crisis.  Politicising the issues, the profiteering and panic are not helping anyone.  

We will get through this and I hope this blog is serving you well.  

Some of you have asked which sites I am sourcing as I endeavour to base these articles on the most reliable and accurate data and information.  Here are some excellent sites I can recommend.  Do not hesitate to inform me of ones you are finding particularly helpful.  

Just click on the titles that are centred:

1. Coronavirus Update 

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. Worldometer is owned by Dadax, an independent company. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation.

Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

We have licensed our counters at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), to BBC News, and to the U2 concert, among others.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books, in more than 6,000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

2. Center for Systems Science and Engineering 

This is the Johns Hopkins site and features an interactive map documenting the case activity throughout the world.

3. Dr John Campbell YouTubes

Dr Campbell is a qualified medical educator who resides in the UK.  His charming and humble approach is admirable.  He breaks down the basics in easy-to-understand-and-apply ways.  

And here is a new one that has come to my attention today:

4. Global Health Security Index

This innovative and interactive world map, covers the key issues, including comparing and evaluating national preventative and management measures.  

The Global Health Security Index was "developed with guidance from an international panel of experts from 13 countries, with research by the Economist Intelligence Unit," The Washington Post reported last year. "More than 100 researchers spent a year collecting and validating publicly available data.”

I will continue to update the key statistics twice a day and feature practical information for your benefit.  Please stay safe, observe your national restrictions to the letter, wash your hands properly and stay home.  This is NOT a drill!

A BRILLIANT TED TALK FOR TODAY IN JUST 21 MINUTES

Laurie Garrett, author of The Coming Plague, (In this case the bird flu pandemic of 1997) with some learnings from previous pandemics.

Highlights:

• Commercial travel had completely disrupted the existing research regarding how to react to various earlier pandemics because it affects the rate of spread.
• The H5N1 virus was initially covered up for commercial and political reasons.
• Today in response to a 'surprise pandemic' producing a vaccine is a very slow process.  Estimates of a maximum capacity of doses would be about 260 million that could be quickly manufactured.
• One major problem was to know who was in charge.
• Lots of competition was seen for protective gear and medical equipment and drugs.
• There were no uniform quarantine or protective gear (for health-care workers) standards and procedures
• Tamiflu, although showing potential was discovered to be more problematic than helpful
• Although unimagined amounts of funds had been designated for preparedness in the USA as the H5N1 was spreading:
• Only 15 states had been certified as capable of distributing drugs and antibiotics from the stockpile (of then Tamiflu)
• Half the States in the USA were predicted to run out of available hospital beds within TWO weeks of the pandemic
• Forty states faced a nursing shortage

So What?

• It could take up to 18-24 months for a pandemic to 'wear itself out'
• A pandemic typically comes in waves.  With the H5N1 pandemic, the damage done in the first wave took its toll on the existing healthcare workers and when it came back around for a second wave, there were far fewer healthcare workers alive to help
• The 1918 Spanish Flu was especially lethal because the antibodies (natural defence 'fighters' within our bodies) over-reacted in confusion and the victim drowned as their lungs filled up with the fluids that resulted from the fight
• There is no recommended or practical hope in stockpiling medical support gear (masks, drugs, water, food, etc.)  It would prove to be as ineffective as the 1950s Civil Defense Bomb Shelters.  The solution instead will come as neighbourhoods and communities begin to work together to support each other.

Bottom line  

While you are healthy:

• Avoid exposure to anyone who is, or maybe, infected.  
• Avoid crowds and public transportation
• Wash your hands if you return from being outside (remember to use a bar of soap, rather than liquid and sing Happy Birthday twice!)
• Get ample sleep (eight hours is a goal)

If you feel sick:

• Stay home
• Check the most common symptoms (found on this link).
• Take your temperature. A high temperature is a warning.
• Call your local health provider or COVID-19 hotline in your city or state to get their advice as to your next steps.

Five Types of Reactions  

Because many of those in affected countries are free to make their own decisions, who do not respond easily or well to dictated mandates, managing this virus is more difficult in free nations.  

1. Those busy buying up all the toilet paper and masks causing unnecessary panic and lack for others.
2. Those over-reacting to the danger of the virus, living in fear of  'inevitable doom'.
3. Those not aware of -- or not respecting -- the 'invisible nature' of the virus (that can dwell within someone, produce no symptoms and infect others around them).
4. Those so concerned with commercial interests, they are ignoring the reality of the dangers.
5. Those taking an even-handed and informed attitude.

If individuals only do what they think is right in their own eyes and do not listen to the advice of those who must lead us now, many will die around the world.  This is not a drill!