Why is COVID-19 so Serious?

Key Points

• 1.   Covid-19 virus displays subtle to no symptoms. 
• 2.   It is proving difficult to self-recognise and for health-providers to diagnose (see point 6).
• 3.   Because infected individuals show/feel no apparent dangerous symptoms or feel unwell, the virus is spreading wider and more rapidly than other viruses. 
• 4.   When an individual is asymptomatic they are unmotivated and take no or little self-precaution to protect others.
• 5.   Globally there is no agreed way to manage a pandemic. 
• 6.   In many countries there is a lack of education, infrastructure and medical supplies and equipment, the response is uncoordinated or politicised.  This results in yet more individuals being infected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTWZXWkz25c

5 Reasons COVID-19 may soon spiral out of control

COVID-19 is a Corona Virus.  Corona Virus is a family of common viruses that typically result in the seasonal flu.  However, the COVID-19 virus is an organism that has mutated and 'jumped' from infecting animals (who may never have shown symptoms) to humans - this is called a zoonotic virus.  

Soldier On

Unlike the common flu, this virus comes with the ‘hidden danger” of spreading widely during a long and unsymptomatic incubation period – meaning many more people are exposed to the virus who do not feel ill.  

The virus has now spread to 60 nations around the globe.

Our familiarity with ‘just having a cold or the flu’ combined with our drive (or need) to soldier on, is especially apparent in developed countries.  Individuals who feel 'relatively fine’ go freely into the public and go to work or indulge in group activities -- all while they are infectious (able to spread the virus).

Longer ‘Shelf Life”

The virus is spreading long after an infected person coughs or sneezes virus-ladened droplets while near others, because of how long it lives once expelled.  

The COVID-19 virus is protected by a particularly hearty sleeve, bubble or barrier that allows it to survive longer on surfaces, within circulating air or through sewage.  

Current estimates believe this virus can survive for more than 14 days outside the body.  (See article in this blog about how the virus has been noted to be spreading). 

COVID-19 also seems able to easily change/adapt to new situations because it replicates RNA, not DNA (which is more stable against change – more on this in another blog article). 

Seven Step Invasion Strategy

For now, here is how the COVID-19 virus acts when it infects an individual:

• 1.   Attachment – the virus enters the body and attaches itself to certain cells.
• 2.   Penetration – it penetrates the cell wall and enters the cell.
• 3.   Uncoating – it ‘melts’ once inside the cell wall and takes up residence in the new host.
• 4.   Biosynthesis – it adapts to the new environment before the body can react and take defensive action.
• 5.   Assembly – it gathers ‘power’ and multiplies itself with the cells.
• 6.   Release – it breaks out of the weakened, host cells to invade other vulnerable cells.
• 7.   Repetition - It starts again in more cells, repeating the previous six steps as it spreads throughout an individual’s body until symptoms begin to show.

Unanticipated Victims

As the COVID-19 continues to develop in the now 37 countries who have identified it, there are over eighty thousand reported infected and nearly three thousand have died.  

Wuhan and other countries have put travel bans in place to attempt to moderate the spread of the disease.  The result is that the number of reported cases is slowing down.  So that is good.

Few realised that closing down cities would result in unanticipated victims.  While human life is of ultimate worth, there are pets left behind that can no longer be cared for.  

There are many times when we all find ourselves dependent on the kindness of strangers and this is one time when we can consider the value of having others to support us.

I thought this video was quite confronting, not only to watch this man's efforts to care for some of the animals of Wuhan but the dystopian starkness of a once-bustling city -- now a ghost town.  

General News on 25 February 2020

Key Points

1. Declare a Global Pandemic - With all this spread of the disease globally, the World Health Organisation should officially declare this is a global pandemic.

2. Prepare NOW - No country is ready to manage the many serious and critical cases that are looming.  This group of individuals need extra supportive care and treatment to return them to health.  It is imperative that efforts to prepare for what is to come, be made now.

3. National Customs - Some local and traditional habits need to be curtailed during this time, such as handshaking, hugging and the kissing greetings of many nationalities.

4. Unexpected Casual Immigration - one thing identified from this situation is there are many individuals from many nations who travel regularly in and out of China to work.

5. Miscalculation of Infectious Period - This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

6. Statistics are all over the place - The lack of standardisation and integrity of reporting from the individual nations worldwide is inadequate to manage the numbers accurately.  Much of this has to do with political issues, not issues of science and capability.

======== Notable Countries Today ====== 

CHINA

China has now cancelled the National Peoples Congress.  Wuhan remains locked down to travel and the President of China has admitted to 'shortcomings'.  All extraordinary measures.

Supposedly, the number of new cases has slowed to about 1,000 per day and the volume per day is increasing more slowly.   

Although epidemics have a peak, this remains a very serious situation.  It is expected that the number of cases will start to level off in Wuhan.  

However, it is important to consider how far the virus was spread when the five million left Wuhan in the early days (especially, the group of 40,000 who left the city after their shared-pot banquet).  These have not yet begun to be managed, let alone, counted as all efforts have been focused on Wuhan.

IRAN

The number of cases in Iran may have started by an Iranian national who travelled to China, but so far they have not been able to identify 'patient zero'.  

There are now 61 cases with 50 deaths and they are occurring across the country.  Tragically, the government is delaying the release of information on this disease for political reasons - resulting in 'life as usual' behaviour.  

Many flights in and out of Iran have been stopped by other countries.  Indications are there are far more infected including many health care providers.  

The religious shrines remain open and people (who are not well informed).  Many of the government officials are infected.  Those in other areas of the country are not permitted to use protective gear so as not to alarm the public. 

NOTE:  It is a customary greeting to hug the other person and kiss both cheeks (or one cheek) when meeting and departing, which obviously will contribute to the spread of the disease.

According to a local government official, 'Tehran situation is terrible and there are deaths by the hour.'

Italy

Cases in Italy have doubled and the health authorities have not found the initial 'patient zero' to track their movements and where they will have spread the disease.

Seems there are many around the world, including Italy, where individuals are working illegally in China and travel back and forth regularly without the government knowing.  

Italy could be a good sample country as they have excellent care there.

Diamond Princess and the UK

In the UK there are now four more cases, with 13 in total.  Evidently, these four cases were not identified when flown back from the Diamond Princess to the UK.  Although they were quarantined, they were released after 14 days as being asymptomatic.  

This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than  originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

with Diamond Princess, there are 28 new cases, even though people on the ship are in quarantined and are not mixing.

South Korea 

The growth of cases is dramatic.  Today nearly 200 new cases.  S. Korean government have cracked down on public gatherings and travel. 

Israel, Bahrain and Lebanon 

These three countries have now discovered cases and it is thought they originated from the frequent travellers from there in and out of Iran.

North Korea

No reports from North Korea.

NEW WAYS COVID-19 IS SPREAD

There is a surprising new group of infected individuals in Iran, with five dead already.  Strangely enough, there is no identified link with China and Iran.  More to come on that.

The spread of the virus is thought to resemble the spread of other viruses.  Here are the ways COVID-19 is being documented and suspected of spreading?

Droplets with the virus in them

Droplets of moisture containing the virus that someone simply breathes out or when they cough or sneeze them out.  These droplets circulate in the air and can be breathed in by another.  

The infected droplets also land on surfaces (distances of up to 2-3 meters - 6 feet) holding the virus alive to be picked up by another on their hands and then accidentally transferred to their mouth, nose, eyes or other mucous membranes.  

Aerated Human Waste

Through the aeration of human waste -- solid and liquid when someone uses the toilet and flushes it.  Very small droplets containing the virus can circulate in the air and land on various surfaces.  

From then, others who may be in a public restroom can be exposed to the virus that lands on surfaces and breathed in while it is circulating in the air.

Sewage

In sewage.  There are many ways sewage could leak out and infect individuals, including pipes within dwellings that are not set up properly and allow small leaks.  Also, when sewage pipes from houses and throughout cities have leaks or break.  

Finally, from sewage treatment plants.  Further research needs to be done regarding the spread of the virus through sewage needs to be done to formalise how this will be managed and the significance of the threat through this method.

Multi-dwellings

There are reports of the virus spreading within multi-dwellings.  A good example is how the virus has been discovered and seems to have spread throughout more than one cruise ships, such as the Diamond Princess docked in Japan.  

But also there is concern that the virus may spread within multi-dwellings, such as apartment houses (and the possibility certainly exists for spread within office buildings).  

These multi-dwellings are proving to be inadvertent laboratories that selectively isolate a group of individuals.  Health care researchers then can document the spread of the virus within discrete populations.  Spread within these types of structures could happen from: 

• contaminated air circulating through central heating/air conditioning
• touching infected surfaces (elevator doors or buttons, walls, etc.)  As the virus can live outside the body for a yet to be substantiated time and infect others when they touch these same surfaces or breathe in the virus circulating in the air.   

WASH YOUR HANDS THOROUGHLY!