General News on 25 February 2020

Key Points

1. Declare a Global Pandemic - With all this spread of the disease globally, the World Health Organisation should officially declare this is a global pandemic.

2. Prepare NOW - No country is ready to manage the many serious and critical cases that are looming.  This group of individuals need extra supportive care and treatment to return them to health.  It is imperative that efforts to prepare for what is to come, be made now.

3. National Customs - Some local and traditional habits need to be curtailed during this time, such as handshaking, hugging and the kissing greetings of many nationalities.

4. Unexpected Casual Immigration - one thing identified from this situation is there are many individuals from many nations who travel regularly in and out of China to work.

5. Miscalculation of Infectious Period - This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

6. Statistics are all over the place - The lack of standardisation and integrity of reporting from the individual nations worldwide is inadequate to manage the numbers accurately.  Much of this has to do with political issues, not issues of science and capability.

======== Notable Countries Today ====== 

CHINA

China has now cancelled the National Peoples Congress.  Wuhan remains locked down to travel and the President of China has admitted to 'shortcomings'.  All extraordinary measures.

Supposedly, the number of new cases has slowed to about 1,000 per day and the volume per day is increasing more slowly.   

Although epidemics have a peak, this remains a very serious situation.  It is expected that the number of cases will start to level off in Wuhan.  

However, it is important to consider how far the virus was spread when the five million left Wuhan in the early days (especially, the group of 40,000 who left the city after their shared-pot banquet).  These have not yet begun to be managed, let alone, counted as all efforts have been focused on Wuhan.

IRAN

The number of cases in Iran may have started by an Iranian national who travelled to China, but so far they have not been able to identify 'patient zero'.  

There are now 61 cases with 50 deaths and they are occurring across the country.  Tragically, the government is delaying the release of information on this disease for political reasons - resulting in 'life as usual' behaviour.  

Many flights in and out of Iran have been stopped by other countries.  Indications are there are far more infected including many health care providers.  

The religious shrines remain open and people (who are not well informed).  Many of the government officials are infected.  Those in other areas of the country are not permitted to use protective gear so as not to alarm the public. 

NOTE:  It is a customary greeting to hug the other person and kiss both cheeks (or one cheek) when meeting and departing, which obviously will contribute to the spread of the disease.

According to a local government official, 'Tehran situation is terrible and there are deaths by the hour.'

Italy

Cases in Italy have doubled and the health authorities have not found the initial 'patient zero' to track their movements and where they will have spread the disease.

Seems there are many around the world, including Italy, where individuals are working illegally in China and travel back and forth regularly without the government knowing.  

Italy could be a good sample country as they have excellent care there.

Diamond Princess and the UK

In the UK there are now four more cases, with 13 in total.  Evidently, these four cases were not identified when flown back from the Diamond Princess to the UK.  Although they were quarantined, they were released after 14 days as being asymptomatic.  

This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than  originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

with Diamond Princess, there are 28 new cases, even though people on the ship are in quarantined and are not mixing.

South Korea 

The growth of cases is dramatic.  Today nearly 200 new cases.  S. Korean government have cracked down on public gatherings and travel. 

Israel, Bahrain and Lebanon 

These three countries have now discovered cases and it is thought they originated from the frequent travellers from there in and out of Iran.

North Korea

No reports from North Korea.

Nothing Stored up for this Rainy Day

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Fallout Shows the Unsuspected Dangers of Over-Reliance on China—Curtis Ellis
American Thought Leaders

This is why globalism is NOT a good idea and neither is it a solution to global economics.  

Gentlemen and ladies ... start your engines of new supply sources that are close to home.  The price to pay is too high in an emergency.

Coronavirus by the numbers; wartime measures in China

14 February 2020

The World Health Organisation: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf9a_I5kCDk

China Measures

China has ordered strict and extraordinary measures for citizens to self-quarantine themselves or else they will be forced into central quarantine facilities.  For now, in China, almost everything in the cities are closed for the next two weeks.

Counting Incomplete

Counting is the big challenge right now because China is battling the disease rather than working on keeping accurate and up-to-date statistics and many places have no way to report centrally.  This means that, as we've observed already, the numbers will likely change abruptly and in large chunks into the future.  

USE YOUR OWN TOWELS, PLUS

China Coronavirus: 

Tough Realities & Possibility of Global Pandemic

Epidemic Reporter Laurie Garrett

Or copy and paste this link into your browser

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jcthdee6CXs

Highlights from this one hour video

NOTE:  Any details about the life span or behaviour of COVID-19 are speculative at this point.  However, this video does outline some basic, common sense things you can do in your everyday activities at home and work.  

1. Corona Viruses is a family of viruses that account for about half of all common colds.  We all have learned to minimise the effects of this at home.
2. Do not go into the office, school or activities when you are sick.
3. Do not share towels (kitchen and bath).  They are great breeding grounds for virus and bacterium.  Only use YOUR own towels or use paper towels.
4. Take care with doorknobs, phones, cabinet, pens, ATMs, door handles, tablets, etc.  Sharing of physical items spreads shares viruses. 
5. Wash your hands OFTEN and for longer than you think you should (best to time it is to sing Happy Birthday twice).
6. Almost all face masks are not effective in blocking a virus, as they do not provide a barrier.  Moisture builds upon the surface of the mask and creates an ideal breeding ground for the virus, but helps you remember you of the imminent dangers, to keep a safe distance and not to touch your face.
7. Wearing gloves - there are many with allergies to latex and most do not know how to take them off and dispose of them properly.

Observations of How it Spreads

Transmission of the virus can occur even when you do not have symptoms.  COVID-19 is easily mixed with air.  When you sneeze or cough or even exhale the virus can enter the air space and travel up to two meters to others.

The virus is also present in faeces, which begs a focus on proper handwashing before and after any activities!

How Long Infectious?

No data is yet available to substantiated how long someone can infect others while they are asymptomatic (without symptoms).  

Estimates now are as high as: 

• 2 to 14 days before showing symptoms 
• 14 to 24 days after you have recovered 
• After recovery, a person can be reinfected as antibodies are not formed in response to the virus.
• Additionally, the virus seems to be transferred in pregnancy to the infant.

Most at Risk

Those actively engaged with working with those suspected of being infected are most vulnerable to becoming infected.  In China, there are an estimated 1,700 (updated as of 15 February) health care workers infected.  Also, at high risk are the elderly and the young.

Flu Season

This is also the 'normal flu' season, which is dangerous enough annually.  However, no one understands how to manage and treat COVID-19, and because it spreads so easily between individuals and the death rate is so high.

Transmission Rate - R-nought Rate or 'R0'

The R-nought rate, which is shown as 'R0' refers to the likelihood of replication of the disease -- or how many people will be infected per infected person.  Example:  

• An R0 of one means one person to one more person
• An R0 rate of two means for every one individual infected two more will be infected.  

At this point, COVID-19 cannot yet be calculated because China is unable/unwilling to calculate it.  However, estimates from what is known believe it may eventually be as high as 4.5.  To put this in perspective, the R0 of the 1918 Spanish Flu was less than two.  The Spanish Flu killed an estimated 30-60 million individuals globally.

Gabriel Yung, dean of HK University Medical School, a worldwide expert on these new diseases, estimates this epidemic will become a full-fledged pandemic.  Ultimately it will infect up to 60% of the world's population with a 1% mortality rate -- more than 100 million dead.  But it is still early days.

In China today, the crematoriums are unable to receive more bodies because they can't keep up with the constant inflow right now.

NOTE:  The end of this video speaks candidly about why there is not yet a vaccine or inoculation.  Quite dire.

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DANGER:  

Most protective gear is manufactured and imported FROM China.  China has stopped exporting all medical support equipment.  Most outlets are already out of these items.  There is, at this point, no contingency plan (yet) for these supplies!

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