International data agrees

If we begin to look at the statistics finally being collected and analysed by those interested in facts and meaningful research, the result is now clear that more panic than common sense has been gripping the world.  This disaster to so many lives has became more of a political 'football', than truthful warnings.  

We should be grateful for those who have held the line of facts rather than fantasy during this time.  Dr. John Campbell has shared the facts impassionately and with an innocent wonder for the past two years.  

You only have to read the comments of grateful thanks for his videos to realise how hungry people are and have been for facts.

I suspect in five years scientists and statisticians will look back on this time and see, as some have already, that many have used this misfortune to take freedoms and assume control of others ...for their own benefit.

Necessity of Standard, Cumulative Global Statistics

The world seems to be in a 'blame someone mode'.  We must get real about the developments and implications of COVID-19 for our day-to-day lives. 

A roadblock is uncovering the facts during this time.  I've been following the various sources and reports about COVID-19 since mid-January and offer here some overview stats to consider as offering hope.

Stats of Progress of COVID-19

Estimates from the progress of the virus to date indicate that: 

• 30% - Global infection - (up to, not more than) of the world population could be infected as it progresses.  
• 81% - Mild Cases - of those infected, will contract a mild case.  Without the diagnostic test, the infection could seem just 'the flu'.  
• 10% to 14% - Critical cases - of those infected are at risk to ultimately be infected with a serious form of the virus.  
• 7% - Death rate - out of this population of critical cases result in death.
• 
  

As the disease develops, some countries continue to work independently (believing they know best how to manage the disease).  Some are not forthcoming of the existence of the virus for political or commercial reasons.  


However, sharing information now is critical so the health providers the world relies upon are forewarned and forearmed.  Having and organising a complete picture of observations of symptoms and behaviours and accurate statistics would be invaluable.  

Reporting Bodies

There are credible reporting bodies collaborating and sharing information as it is available, but no ONE source for the global developments.  Some good resources are: 

• The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
• 
  
• Johns Hopkins Research Centre
• 
  
• The Lancet in the UK
• 
  
• The World Health Organisation

Global Reporting Metrics

A global standard for metrics has not been established for COVID-19, yet.  There are some benefits in that it is early days with this virus and some unexpected general observation may prove to be worthy to monitor.  

Conclusion

Certainly, the memory of the 'Spanish Flu of 1918' has faded so far in the background and the health-arrogance and carelessness of the world means we were not ready for COVID-19.  But we will be!

Global Spread of COVID-19

As they say, statistics are only as good as the data provided and in the case of COVID-19 spread globally there are some countries being more open and accurate with their reporting than others.  There are additionally, countries that are disregarding common sense, preventative measures.

The number of new infections reported in China seems to be slowing as the disease begins to work its way through the 'initially reported' Wuhan.  

Concerns remain for those in remote areas who were in Wuhan and travelled away for their New Year celebrations.  Those statistics are yet to be appreciated.  In the meantime, the global spread of COVID-19 is increasing and since this article was first written the virus has been detected in 56 countries.  (I will update this chart tomorrow for you.)

(To see the chart better, simply click on it.)

General News on 25 February 2020

Key Points

1. Declare a Global Pandemic - With all this spread of the disease globally, the World Health Organisation should officially declare this is a global pandemic.

2. Prepare NOW - No country is ready to manage the many serious and critical cases that are looming.  This group of individuals need extra supportive care and treatment to return them to health.  It is imperative that efforts to prepare for what is to come, be made now.

3. National Customs - Some local and traditional habits need to be curtailed during this time, such as handshaking, hugging and the kissing greetings of many nationalities.

4. Unexpected Casual Immigration - one thing identified from this situation is there are many individuals from many nations who travel regularly in and out of China to work.

5. Miscalculation of Infectious Period - This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

6. Statistics are all over the place - The lack of standardisation and integrity of reporting from the individual nations worldwide is inadequate to manage the numbers accurately.  Much of this has to do with political issues, not issues of science and capability.

======== Notable Countries Today ====== 

CHINA

China has now cancelled the National Peoples Congress.  Wuhan remains locked down to travel and the President of China has admitted to 'shortcomings'.  All extraordinary measures.

Supposedly, the number of new cases has slowed to about 1,000 per day and the volume per day is increasing more slowly.   

Although epidemics have a peak, this remains a very serious situation.  It is expected that the number of cases will start to level off in Wuhan.  

However, it is important to consider how far the virus was spread when the five million left Wuhan in the early days (especially, the group of 40,000 who left the city after their shared-pot banquet).  These have not yet begun to be managed, let alone, counted as all efforts have been focused on Wuhan.

IRAN

The number of cases in Iran may have started by an Iranian national who travelled to China, but so far they have not been able to identify 'patient zero'.  

There are now 61 cases with 50 deaths and they are occurring across the country.  Tragically, the government is delaying the release of information on this disease for political reasons - resulting in 'life as usual' behaviour.  

Many flights in and out of Iran have been stopped by other countries.  Indications are there are far more infected including many health care providers.  

The religious shrines remain open and people (who are not well informed).  Many of the government officials are infected.  Those in other areas of the country are not permitted to use protective gear so as not to alarm the public. 

NOTE:  It is a customary greeting to hug the other person and kiss both cheeks (or one cheek) when meeting and departing, which obviously will contribute to the spread of the disease.

According to a local government official, 'Tehran situation is terrible and there are deaths by the hour.'

Italy

Cases in Italy have doubled and the health authorities have not found the initial 'patient zero' to track their movements and where they will have spread the disease.

Seems there are many around the world, including Italy, where individuals are working illegally in China and travel back and forth regularly without the government knowing.  

Italy could be a good sample country as they have excellent care there.

Diamond Princess and the UK

In the UK there are now four more cases, with 13 in total.  Evidently, these four cases were not identified when flown back from the Diamond Princess to the UK.  Although they were quarantined, they were released after 14 days as being asymptomatic.  

This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than  originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

with Diamond Princess, there are 28 new cases, even though people on the ship are in quarantined and are not mixing.

South Korea 

The growth of cases is dramatic.  Today nearly 200 new cases.  S. Korean government have cracked down on public gatherings and travel. 

Israel, Bahrain and Lebanon 

These three countries have now discovered cases and it is thought they originated from the frequent travellers from there in and out of Iran.

North Korea

No reports from North Korea.