A BRILLIANT TED TALK FOR TODAY IN JUST 21 MINUTES

Laurie Garrett, author of The Coming Plague, (In this case the bird flu pandemic of 1997) with some learnings from previous pandemics.

Highlights:

• Commercial travel had completely disrupted the existing research regarding how to react to various earlier pandemics because it affects the rate of spread.
• The H5N1 virus was initially covered up for commercial and political reasons.
• Today in response to a 'surprise pandemic' producing a vaccine is a very slow process.  Estimates of a maximum capacity of doses would be about 260 million that could be quickly manufactured.
• One major problem was to know who was in charge.
• Lots of competition was seen for protective gear and medical equipment and drugs.
• There were no uniform quarantine or protective gear (for health-care workers) standards and procedures
• Tamiflu, although showing potential was discovered to be more problematic than helpful
• Although unimagined amounts of funds had been designated for preparedness in the USA as the H5N1 was spreading:
• Only 15 states had been certified as capable of distributing drugs and antibiotics from the stockpile (of then Tamiflu)
• Half the States in the USA were predicted to run out of available hospital beds within TWO weeks of the pandemic
• Forty states faced a nursing shortage

So What?

• It could take up to 18-24 months for a pandemic to 'wear itself out'
• A pandemic typically comes in waves.  With the H5N1 pandemic, the damage done in the first wave took its toll on the existing healthcare workers and when it came back around for a second wave, there were far fewer healthcare workers alive to help
• The 1918 Spanish Flu was especially lethal because the antibodies (natural defence 'fighters' within our bodies) over-reacted in confusion and the victim drowned as their lungs filled up with the fluids that resulted from the fight
• There is no recommended or practical hope in stockpiling medical support gear (masks, drugs, water, food, etc.)  It would prove to be as ineffective as the 1950s Civil Defense Bomb Shelters.  The solution instead will come as neighbourhoods and communities begin to work together to support each other.

Bottom line  

While you are healthy:

• Avoid exposure to anyone who is, or maybe, infected.  
• Avoid crowds and public transportation
• Wash your hands if you return from being outside (remember to use a bar of soap, rather than liquid and sing Happy Birthday twice!)
• Get ample sleep (eight hours is a goal)

If you feel sick:

• Stay home
• Check the most common symptoms (found on this link).
• Take your temperature. A high temperature is a warning.
• Call your local health provider or COVID-19 hotline in your city or state to get their advice as to your next steps.

Five Types of Reactions  

Because many of those in affected countries are free to make their own decisions, who do not respond easily or well to dictated mandates, managing this virus is more difficult in free nations.  

1. Those busy buying up all the toilet paper and masks causing unnecessary panic and lack for others.
2. Those over-reacting to the danger of the virus, living in fear of  'inevitable doom'.
3. Those not aware of -- or not respecting -- the 'invisible nature' of the virus (that can dwell within someone, produce no symptoms and infect others around them).
4. Those so concerned with commercial interests, they are ignoring the reality of the dangers.
5. Those taking an even-handed and informed attitude.

If individuals only do what they think is right in their own eyes and do not listen to the advice of those who must lead us now, many will die around the world.  This is not a drill!