What is understood at this point about the typical behaviour of coming down with COVID-19 would suggest that a person may be contagious for up to 14 days before experiencing symptoms.
The symptoms may, initially, seem like the typical flu, where there is achiness (myalgia) and/ or fatigue. A fever develops and increases. There may be diarrhoea and/or difficulty breathing.
UPDATE on 24 February 2020
It has been discovered that individuals who are infectious are MOST contagious at days three to five days after being infected. This is a time when symptoms are not significant and the individual feels safe to mingle with others.
China has ordered strict and extraordinary measures for citizens to self-quarantine themselves or else they will be forced into central quarantine facilities. For now, in China, almost everything in the cities are closed for the next two weeks.
Counting Incomplete
Counting is the big challenge right now because China is battling the disease rather than working on keeping accurate and up-to-date statistics and many places have no way to report centrally. This means that, as we've observed already, the numbers will likely change abruptly and in large chunks into the future.
NOTE: Any details about the life span or behaviour of COVID-19 are speculative at this point. However, this video does outline some basic, common sense things you can do in your everyday activities at home and work.
Corona Viruses is a family of viruses that account for about half of all common colds. We all have learned to minimise the effects of this at home.
Do not go into the office, school or activities when you are sick.
Do not share towels (kitchen and bath). They are great breeding grounds for virus and bacterium. Only use YOUR own towels or use paper towels.
Take care with doorknobs, phones, cabinet, pens, ATMs, door handles, tablets, etc. Sharing of physical items spreads shares viruses.
Wash your hands OFTEN and for longer than you think you should (best to time it is to sing Happy Birthday twice).
Almost all face masks are not effective in blocking a virus, as they do not provide a barrier. Moisture builds upon the surface of the mask and creates an ideal breeding ground for the virus, but helps you remember you of the imminent dangers, to keep a safe distance and not to touch your face.
Wearing gloves - there are many with allergies to latex and most do not know how to take them off and dispose of them properly.
Observations of How it Spreads
Transmission of the virus can occur even when you do not have symptoms. COVID-19 is easily mixed with air. When you sneeze or cough or even exhale the virus can enter the air space and travel up to two meters to others.
The virus is also present in faeces, which begs a focus on proper handwashing before and after any activities!
How Long Infectious?
No data is yet available to substantiated how long someone can infect others while they are asymptomatic (without symptoms).
Estimates now are as high as:
2 to 14 days before showing symptoms
14 to 24 days after you have recovered
After recovery, a person can be reinfected as antibodies are not formed in response to the virus.
Additionally, the virus seems to be transferred in pregnancy to the infant.
Most at Risk
Those actively engaged with working with those suspected of being infected are most vulnerable to becoming infected. In China, there are an estimated 1,700 (updated as of 15 February) health care workers infected. Also, at high risk are the elderly and the young.
Flu Season
This is also the 'normal flu' season, which is dangerous enough annually. However, no one understands how to manage and treat COVID-19, and because it spreads so easily between individuals and the death rate is so high.
Transmission Rate - R-nought Rate or 'R0'
The R-nought rate, which is shown as 'R0' refers to the likelihood of replication of the disease -- or how many people will be infected per infected person. Example:
An R0 of one means one person to one more person
An R0 rate of two means for every one individual infected two more will be infected.
At this point, COVID-19 cannot yet be calculated because China is unable/unwilling to calculate it. However, estimates from what is known believe it may eventually be as high as 4.5. To put this in perspective, the R0 of the 1918 Spanish Flu was less than two. The Spanish Flu killed an estimated 30-60 million individuals globally.
Gabriel Yung, dean of HK University Medical School, a worldwide expert on these new diseases, estimates this epidemic will become a full-fledged pandemic. Ultimately it will infect up to 60% of the world's population with a 1% mortality rate -- more than 100 million dead. But it is still early days.
In China today, the crematoriums are unable to receive more bodies because they can't keep up with the constant inflow right now.
NOTE: The end of this video speaks candidly about why there is not yet a vaccine or inoculation. Quite dire.
========================================
DANGER:
Most protective gear is manufactured and imported FROM China. China has stopped exporting all medical support equipment. Most outlets are already out of these items. There is, at this point, no contingency plan (yet) for these supplies!
(NOTE:Words underlined
have a link embedded to provide more details):Click on this link for general information about the behaviour of the
disease and basic protective strategies:
Early Basics of the Virus Discussed
Early information on precautionary measures to take by Ken
Berry, MD
This one hour and seven-minute video is by two US-Chinese
experts who share some important information on why the data and facts about
the disease from China are still unclear:
Also, if you are interested in the details from a medical
researcher’s point of view,Dr. John
Campbellin the UK has been following and documenting the facts from
the beginning. He takes a little getting
used to, but his information is sound:
There are still many unknowns about this new disease, that
has been designated a pandemic (meaning world-wide consequences).However, there are some things you can do to
try to protect yourself and others around you. They need to be followed consistently during this time:
1.Avoid crowded places and public transportation –
so self-quarantine when possible.
2.Avoid touching surfaces and shaking hands.You may wish to wear gloves when you know you
will be out and about.At this time, in
Australia, non-latex gloves are available in boxes of 100 pairs and reasonably
priced.They need to be taken off and
disposed properly.(More on the use of
gloves in a later post.)
3.Wash your hands thoroughly with soap, scrubbing
vigorously if you’ve been out in the public or exposed to someone suspected of
having the virus.
4.It is coincidentally flu season, so many may
feel ill and more than usual may want to go to the hospital or doctors.Try to avoid this.If you feel you need help, call a health
provider (doctor, clinic, hospital emergency room) rather than showing up and
having to wait with other unwell people who may be infected and not know it.Self-quarantine may be the best choice.(In Australia the support of phone-based and
visiting doctors is a great benefit.)
5.Because this is a virus rather than a bacterium,
the ‘virus germ’ is much smaller than a bacterium.Additionally, because the COVID-19 virus is well
protected by a barrier, unlike bacterium, it does not die easily when
inadvertently deposited on a surface.
6.Hand sanitisers (that rely on alcohol) have not
been found to be effective, although they do give a sense of doing something
and may be most effective in reminding you to keep your hands clean and away
from your face.
7.Face masks may be helpful, but they must be of
the proper type (N-95 Mask – more in another segment of the blog on masks and
proper wearing of them).They must be
worn correctly (again the virus is very small) and will slip through little
cracks and porous materials.
8.Glasses (or goggles) may also be helpful should
you be exposed to someone who coughs or sneezes nearby as these droplets are
small and travel through the air and may land on your face and eyes.
HINT:It may be good
to buy a few masks now while they are available and not priced for the market
value (meaning when there is a great need someone will sell the masks but at a
hugely inflated price).It may be good
to also have some other basic supplies on hand, as you may find yourself
quarantined.
The virus is spread from person-to-person, and during times before and after symptoms (for up to 2-14 days):
a.During an average 2-14-day incubation period
when the infected person has no symptoms
b.For an average of 10-14 days after an infected
person has recovered because they remain infectious during this time and
without symptoms.
c.Through droplets from person-to-person from
sneezing or coughing when they do not cover their mouth.
d.Through faecal material -- when someone with the
virus, does not wash their hands properly after using the toilet and touches
surfaces or shakes hands with someone.
e.When someone, who has not washed their hands
properly with soap, uses an air dryer to dry their hands which can aerate (mix
with air) the virus and others nearby inhale the virus.
f.Through the pipes in a multi-dwelling.More information about this when I find more.
NOTE:Research shows
that the average person touches their face about 400 times a day without
thinking about the spread of any pathogen/disease.
Every day there are new discoveries.As of today, one early symptom other than feeling like you're coming down with the flu is that (in many cases) you may have diarrhoea and an increasingly high fever.
With regard to the Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19), I suspect
many people either haven't noticed the news about it are unaware.
Most would have little 'respect' for what
another pandemic (such as the Spanish Flu of 1918 (that killed more than 30
million people globally)) would mean for our borderless world today.
However, medical experts are now considering COVID-19 it the
early stages of a new global pandemic -- although fewer than 500 have died, it
is now in 28 countries and in a huge cruise ship in the ocean.
The most serious problem is that China hides the truth to
save face.I've been researching the
progress of the disease regularly and keep a spreadsheet of changes as I
discover them.
Finally, the first case anyone is sure of was diagnosed, but
not reported, on 3 December.The first
reported cases were reported on 23 January.This was after China held an open New Year’s banquet for 40,000-families
(about 130,000 people).
If you've not visited China, at these celebrations, most everyone
uses their chopsticks to eat from communal/ shared bowls and plates.The celebration was held before China banned
travel outside the Wuhan Provence and before they admitted the disease
existed.
However, there are now credible doubts that many of the
dates and numbers are not credible.Those who initially began to identify the seriousness of the disease
were arrested for speaking about it on social media.After this New Year’s banquet, it is
estimated over five million individuals flew out of Wuhan Provence before they
closed the city to travel.
Goals of the Site
This site is dedicated to all those who are interested in sensible and practical, accurate information about this developing threat.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist and will endeavour to only share proven and reliable information about this serious situation.
I will endeavour to keep stats current each day and offer updates regarding general and specific materials you can research for yourself.
My hope is that we all remember that forewarned is forearmed.
