A BRILLIANT TED TALK FOR TODAY IN JUST 21 MINUTES

Laurie Garrett, author of The Coming Plague, (In this case the bird flu pandemic of 1997) with some learnings from previous pandemics.

Highlights:

• Commercial travel had completely disrupted the existing research regarding how to react to various earlier pandemics because it affects the rate of spread.
• The H5N1 virus was initially covered up for commercial and political reasons.
• Today in response to a 'surprise pandemic' producing a vaccine is a very slow process.  Estimates of a maximum capacity of doses would be about 260 million that could be quickly manufactured.
• One major problem was to know who was in charge.
• Lots of competition was seen for protective gear and medical equipment and drugs.
• There were no uniform quarantine or protective gear (for health-care workers) standards and procedures
• Tamiflu, although showing potential was discovered to be more problematic than helpful
• Although unimagined amounts of funds had been designated for preparedness in the USA as the H5N1 was spreading:
• Only 15 states had been certified as capable of distributing drugs and antibiotics from the stockpile (of then Tamiflu)
• Half the States in the USA were predicted to run out of available hospital beds within TWO weeks of the pandemic
• Forty states faced a nursing shortage

So What?

• It could take up to 18-24 months for a pandemic to 'wear itself out'
• A pandemic typically comes in waves.  With the H5N1 pandemic, the damage done in the first wave took its toll on the existing healthcare workers and when it came back around for a second wave, there were far fewer healthcare workers alive to help
• The 1918 Spanish Flu was especially lethal because the antibodies (natural defence 'fighters' within our bodies) over-reacted in confusion and the victim drowned as their lungs filled up with the fluids that resulted from the fight
• There is no recommended or practical hope in stockpiling medical support gear (masks, drugs, water, food, etc.)  It would prove to be as ineffective as the 1950s Civil Defense Bomb Shelters.  The solution instead will come as neighbourhoods and communities begin to work together to support each other.

Bottom line  

While you are healthy:

• Avoid exposure to anyone who is, or maybe, infected.  
• Avoid crowds and public transportation
• Wash your hands if you return from being outside (remember to use a bar of soap, rather than liquid and sing Happy Birthday twice!)
• Get ample sleep (eight hours is a goal)

If you feel sick:

• Stay home
• Check the most common symptoms (found on this link).
• Take your temperature. A high temperature is a warning.
• Call your local health provider or COVID-19 hotline in your city or state to get their advice as to your next steps.

Five Types of Reactions  

Because many of those in affected countries are free to make their own decisions, who do not respond easily or well to dictated mandates, managing this virus is more difficult in free nations.  

1. Those busy buying up all the toilet paper and masks causing unnecessary panic and lack for others.
2. Those over-reacting to the danger of the virus, living in fear of  'inevitable doom'.
3. Those not aware of -- or not respecting -- the 'invisible nature' of the virus (that can dwell within someone, produce no symptoms and infect others around them).
4. Those so concerned with commercial interests, they are ignoring the reality of the dangers.
5. Those taking an even-handed and informed attitude.

If individuals only do what they think is right in their own eyes and do not listen to the advice of those who must lead us now, many will die around the world.  This is not a drill!

USE YOUR OWN TOWELS, PLUS

China Coronavirus: 

Tough Realities & Possibility of Global Pandemic

Epidemic Reporter Laurie Garrett

Or copy and paste this link into your browser

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jcthdee6CXs

Highlights from this one hour video

NOTE:  Any details about the life span or behaviour of COVID-19 are speculative at this point.  However, this video does outline some basic, common sense things you can do in your everyday activities at home and work.  

1. Corona Viruses is a family of viruses that account for about half of all common colds.  We all have learned to minimise the effects of this at home.
2. Do not go into the office, school or activities when you are sick.
3. Do not share towels (kitchen and bath).  They are great breeding grounds for virus and bacterium.  Only use YOUR own towels or use paper towels.
4. Take care with doorknobs, phones, cabinet, pens, ATMs, door handles, tablets, etc.  Sharing of physical items spreads shares viruses. 
5. Wash your hands OFTEN and for longer than you think you should (best to time it is to sing Happy Birthday twice).
6. Almost all face masks are not effective in blocking a virus, as they do not provide a barrier.  Moisture builds upon the surface of the mask and creates an ideal breeding ground for the virus, but helps you remember you of the imminent dangers, to keep a safe distance and not to touch your face.
7. Wearing gloves - there are many with allergies to latex and most do not know how to take them off and dispose of them properly.

Observations of How it Spreads

Transmission of the virus can occur even when you do not have symptoms.  COVID-19 is easily mixed with air.  When you sneeze or cough or even exhale the virus can enter the air space and travel up to two meters to others.

The virus is also present in faeces, which begs a focus on proper handwashing before and after any activities!

How Long Infectious?

No data is yet available to substantiated how long someone can infect others while they are asymptomatic (without symptoms).  

Estimates now are as high as: 

• 2 to 14 days before showing symptoms 
• 14 to 24 days after you have recovered 
• After recovery, a person can be reinfected as antibodies are not formed in response to the virus.
• Additionally, the virus seems to be transferred in pregnancy to the infant.

Most at Risk

Those actively engaged with working with those suspected of being infected are most vulnerable to becoming infected.  In China, there are an estimated 1,700 (updated as of 15 February) health care workers infected.  Also, at high risk are the elderly and the young.

Flu Season

This is also the 'normal flu' season, which is dangerous enough annually.  However, no one understands how to manage and treat COVID-19, and because it spreads so easily between individuals and the death rate is so high.

Transmission Rate - R-nought Rate or 'R0'

The R-nought rate, which is shown as 'R0' refers to the likelihood of replication of the disease -- or how many people will be infected per infected person.  Example:  

• An R0 of one means one person to one more person
• An R0 rate of two means for every one individual infected two more will be infected.  

At this point, COVID-19 cannot yet be calculated because China is unable/unwilling to calculate it.  However, estimates from what is known believe it may eventually be as high as 4.5.  To put this in perspective, the R0 of the 1918 Spanish Flu was less than two.  The Spanish Flu killed an estimated 30-60 million individuals globally.

Gabriel Yung, dean of HK University Medical School, a worldwide expert on these new diseases, estimates this epidemic will become a full-fledged pandemic.  Ultimately it will infect up to 60% of the world's population with a 1% mortality rate -- more than 100 million dead.  But it is still early days.

In China today, the crematoriums are unable to receive more bodies because they can't keep up with the constant inflow right now.

NOTE:  The end of this video speaks candidly about why there is not yet a vaccine or inoculation.  Quite dire.

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DANGER:  

Most protective gear is manufactured and imported FROM China.  China has stopped exporting all medical support equipment.  Most outlets are already out of these items.  There is, at this point, no contingency plan (yet) for these supplies!

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