Why is COVID-19 so Serious?

Key Points

• 1.   Covid-19 virus displays subtle to no symptoms. 
• 2.   It is proving difficult to self-recognise and for health-providers to diagnose (see point 6).
• 3.   Because infected individuals show/feel no apparent dangerous symptoms or feel unwell, the virus is spreading wider and more rapidly than other viruses. 
• 4.   When an individual is asymptomatic they are unmotivated and take no or little self-precaution to protect others.
• 5.   Globally there is no agreed way to manage a pandemic. 
• 6.   In many countries there is a lack of education, infrastructure and medical supplies and equipment, the response is uncoordinated or politicised.  This results in yet more individuals being infected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTWZXWkz25c

5 Reasons COVID-19 may soon spiral out of control

COVID-19 is a Corona Virus.  Corona Virus is a family of common viruses that typically result in the seasonal flu.  However, the COVID-19 virus is an organism that has mutated and 'jumped' from infecting animals (who may never have shown symptoms) to humans - this is called a zoonotic virus.  

Soldier On

Unlike the common flu, this virus comes with the ‘hidden danger” of spreading widely during a long and unsymptomatic incubation period – meaning many more people are exposed to the virus who do not feel ill.  

The virus has now spread to 60 nations around the globe.

Our familiarity with ‘just having a cold or the flu’ combined with our drive (or need) to soldier on, is especially apparent in developed countries.  Individuals who feel 'relatively fine’ go freely into the public and go to work or indulge in group activities -- all while they are infectious (able to spread the virus).

Longer ‘Shelf Life”

The virus is spreading long after an infected person coughs or sneezes virus-ladened droplets while near others, because of how long it lives once expelled.  

The COVID-19 virus is protected by a particularly hearty sleeve, bubble or barrier that allows it to survive longer on surfaces, within circulating air or through sewage.  

Current estimates believe this virus can survive for more than 14 days outside the body.  (See article in this blog about how the virus has been noted to be spreading). 

COVID-19 also seems able to easily change/adapt to new situations because it replicates RNA, not DNA (which is more stable against change – more on this in another blog article). 

Seven Step Invasion Strategy

For now, here is how the COVID-19 virus acts when it infects an individual:

• 1.   Attachment – the virus enters the body and attaches itself to certain cells.
• 2.   Penetration – it penetrates the cell wall and enters the cell.
• 3.   Uncoating – it ‘melts’ once inside the cell wall and takes up residence in the new host.
• 4.   Biosynthesis – it adapts to the new environment before the body can react and take defensive action.
• 5.   Assembly – it gathers ‘power’ and multiplies itself with the cells.
• 6.   Release – it breaks out of the weakened, host cells to invade other vulnerable cells.
• 7.   Repetition - It starts again in more cells, repeating the previous six steps as it spreads throughout an individual’s body until symptoms begin to show.

Two-hundred Million Viruses in One Sneeze!

Watch the video above to discover the best way
to protect others when you sneeze!

Key Points

·        Bacteria and virus (for example, COVID-19) are propelled into the air when you sneeze or cough.
·        Cover your nose and mouth when you sneeze or cough.
·        Don’t hold in a sneeze – it can hurt you.
·        Best way to thwart a sneeze is to use a tissue to cover your nose and mouth
·        ALWAYS wash your hands as soon as possible after a sneeze and try not to touch anything until you do.
·        When you’re out in public, try to remember not to touch your face, eyes or mouth because someone else could have sneezed on surfaces you might touch.

 

Sneeze Science

The speed of a sneeze has been clocked as fast as 100 miles per hour (62.14 km) and can travel as far as 30 feet (nearly 10 meters).  

Each sneeze of an infected person can contain up to 40,000 droplets.  Each droplet can carry a multitude of bacteria or virus.  Each cough or sneeze can, therefore, spread up to two-hundred million viruses into the air around them.

While the droplets are floating in the air, anyone nearby may breathe them in.  They may land on the floor or on nearby surfaces and be stirred up again by air movement and be breathed in or spread to another when they touch any of the surfaces where the droplets have landed until the virus or bacteria die. 

Dangers in Public Restrooms 

If you are in a public restroom, take note:  drying your hands using an air dryer aerates the droplets and circulates them widely throughout a restroom where they can be breathed in by anyone in the restroom or when they fall on surfaces and others touch them. 

At this point, it is undetermined how long the COVED-19 virus can live outside an infected body, but early estimates were 10-14 hours.  The reason for this longevity is that the virus lives protected within an envelope or wall that gives it resilience.  Note:  bacteria is typically dependent on the moisture surrounding it and once it is dried up, the bacteria die. 

When someone touches a surface where these droplets are lurking and then transfers the droplets to their face, eyes or mouth they are risking infection.  Remember the average person unconsciously touches their face from 15.7 to 40 times an hour. 

Happy Birthday to You, Twice!

Wash your hands using warm water and soap.  Lather up while singing “Happy Birthday” twice (probably silently is best).  Then rinse the soap off thoroughly under running water.  Dry them thoroughly with fresh paper towels or just let them drip dry. 

Using the moist hand sanitiser towelettes or liquids should have at least a 60% alcohol content.  Yet, even at that concentration, they have not been seen as protective against COVID-19 - but they are helpful in reminding individuals of the 'danger in their hands'. 

You Know When You’re Going to Sneeze 

Most of us know when a sneeze is imminent.  The video above documents the reality of a sneeze.  The researchers concluded the best way to minimise and contain the spread of the droplets is to sneeze (or cough) into a tissue. 

Covering our mouths with our hands is better and more polite than not but it means our hands are ‘virus-lethal’ when we touch anything else.  Plus the droplets spew right through our fingers.  Sneezing or coughing into our elbow is not all that much better.  So keep a good supply of tissues at hand, especially if you are going to be out in public. 

Additional sneeze resources:

1.    HealthLine – ‘How Far and How Fast a Sneeze Carries Contagious Germs’, https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-far-and-how-fast-a-sneeze-carries-contagious-germs

2.    WebMD, ’11 Surprising Sneezing Facts’, https://www.webmd.com/allergies/features/11-surprising-sneezing-facts#1

3.    Geisinger, ‘One Sneeze Spreads Germs How Far? ‘, https://www.geisinger.org/health-and-wellness/wellness-articles/2017/09/11/20/51/one-sneeze-spreads-germs-how-far

4.    LiveScience, ‘The Gross Science of a Cough and a Sneeze, https://www.livescience.com/3686-gross-science-cough-sneeze.html
5.   NCRI - NewPubMed!, 'A study quantifying the hand-to-face contact rate and its potential application to predicting respiratory tract infection',   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18357546 

Global Spread of COVID-19

As they say, statistics are only as good as the data provided and in the case of COVID-19 spread globally there are some countries being more open and accurate with their reporting than others.  There are additionally, countries that are disregarding common sense, preventative measures.

The number of new infections reported in China seems to be slowing as the disease begins to work its way through the 'initially reported' Wuhan.  

Concerns remain for those in remote areas who were in Wuhan and travelled away for their New Year celebrations.  Those statistics are yet to be appreciated.  In the meantime, the global spread of COVID-19 is increasing and since this article was first written the virus has been detected in 56 countries.  (I will update this chart tomorrow for you.)

(To see the chart better, simply click on it.)

Unanticipated Victims

As the COVID-19 continues to develop in the now 37 countries who have identified it, there are over eighty thousand reported infected and nearly three thousand have died.  

Wuhan and other countries have put travel bans in place to attempt to moderate the spread of the disease.  The result is that the number of reported cases is slowing down.  So that is good.

Few realised that closing down cities would result in unanticipated victims.  While human life is of ultimate worth, there are pets left behind that can no longer be cared for.  

There are many times when we all find ourselves dependent on the kindness of strangers and this is one time when we can consider the value of having others to support us.

I thought this video was quite confronting, not only to watch this man's efforts to care for some of the animals of Wuhan but the dystopian starkness of a once-bustling city -- now a ghost town.  

General News on 25 February 2020

Key Points

1. Declare a Global Pandemic - With all this spread of the disease globally, the World Health Organisation should officially declare this is a global pandemic.

2. Prepare NOW - No country is ready to manage the many serious and critical cases that are looming.  This group of individuals need extra supportive care and treatment to return them to health.  It is imperative that efforts to prepare for what is to come, be made now.

3. National Customs - Some local and traditional habits need to be curtailed during this time, such as handshaking, hugging and the kissing greetings of many nationalities.

4. Unexpected Casual Immigration - one thing identified from this situation is there are many individuals from many nations who travel regularly in and out of China to work.

5. Miscalculation of Infectious Period - This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

6. Statistics are all over the place - The lack of standardisation and integrity of reporting from the individual nations worldwide is inadequate to manage the numbers accurately.  Much of this has to do with political issues, not issues of science and capability.

======== Notable Countries Today ====== 

CHINA

China has now cancelled the National Peoples Congress.  Wuhan remains locked down to travel and the President of China has admitted to 'shortcomings'.  All extraordinary measures.

Supposedly, the number of new cases has slowed to about 1,000 per day and the volume per day is increasing more slowly.   

Although epidemics have a peak, this remains a very serious situation.  It is expected that the number of cases will start to level off in Wuhan.  

However, it is important to consider how far the virus was spread when the five million left Wuhan in the early days (especially, the group of 40,000 who left the city after their shared-pot banquet).  These have not yet begun to be managed, let alone, counted as all efforts have been focused on Wuhan.

IRAN

The number of cases in Iran may have started by an Iranian national who travelled to China, but so far they have not been able to identify 'patient zero'.  

There are now 61 cases with 50 deaths and they are occurring across the country.  Tragically, the government is delaying the release of information on this disease for political reasons - resulting in 'life as usual' behaviour.  

Many flights in and out of Iran have been stopped by other countries.  Indications are there are far more infected including many health care providers.  

The religious shrines remain open and people (who are not well informed).  Many of the government officials are infected.  Those in other areas of the country are not permitted to use protective gear so as not to alarm the public. 

NOTE:  It is a customary greeting to hug the other person and kiss both cheeks (or one cheek) when meeting and departing, which obviously will contribute to the spread of the disease.

According to a local government official, 'Tehran situation is terrible and there are deaths by the hour.'

Italy

Cases in Italy have doubled and the health authorities have not found the initial 'patient zero' to track their movements and where they will have spread the disease.

Seems there are many around the world, including Italy, where individuals are working illegally in China and travel back and forth regularly without the government knowing.  

Italy could be a good sample country as they have excellent care there.

Diamond Princess and the UK

In the UK there are now four more cases, with 13 in total.  Evidently, these four cases were not identified when flown back from the Diamond Princess to the UK.  Although they were quarantined, they were released after 14 days as being asymptomatic.  

This may indicate that the incubation period could be more than  originally thought of as up to 14 days to be infectious.

with Diamond Princess, there are 28 new cases, even though people on the ship are in quarantined and are not mixing.

South Korea 

The growth of cases is dramatic.  Today nearly 200 new cases.  S. Korean government have cracked down on public gatherings and travel. 

Israel, Bahrain and Lebanon 

These three countries have now discovered cases and it is thought they originated from the frequent travellers from there in and out of Iran.

North Korea

No reports from North Korea.

Nothing Stored up for this Rainy Day

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Fallout Shows the Unsuspected Dangers of Over-Reliance on China—Curtis Ellis
American Thought Leaders

This is why globalism is NOT a good idea and neither is it a solution to global economics.  

Gentlemen and ladies ... start your engines of new supply sources that are close to home.  The price to pay is too high in an emergency.

The Iranian 'Canary'

Current REPORTED statistics are becoming suspicious.  Even what is available would beg more emphasis on preparation as this is a pandemic now.

Previous Downsizing of Medical Support

Most health care facilities and supportive health clinics have -- over the years -- been downsized to serve the fewest expected patients in an effort to contain and cut cost.  

What this has resulted in are fewer beds, fewer health care professionals at hand and fewer supplies and infrastructure.  Therefore, most countries -- even the most developed -- will not be adequately prepared for the significant increases that may be on the way. 

China Resource for Medical Supplies

Additionally, most medical supplies and many of the drugs are made from China.  China is no longer exporting medical supplies for the obvious reason.  There seems to be few, if any, alternative suppliers in the world.

IRAN

Pay attention to what is happening in Iran because it is a surprising hot spot and like the proverbial 'canary in the coal mine' what is happening in Iran is shouting pandemic and time to prepare for what is happening.  

Here is a current link to more information about Iran:   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/neighbours-close-borders-iran-virus-concerns-rise-200223160135283.html