China Coronavirus:
Tough Realities & Possibility of Global Pandemic
Epidemic Reporter Laurie Garrett
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Highlights from this one hour video
NOTE: Any details about the life span or behaviour of COVID-19 are speculative at this point. However, this video does outline some basic, common sense things you can do in your everyday activities at home and work.
- Corona Viruses is a family of viruses that account for about half of all common colds. We all have learned to minimise the effects of this at home.
- Do not go into the office, school or activities when you are sick.
- Do not share towels (kitchen and bath). They are great breeding grounds for virus and bacterium. Only use YOUR own towels or use paper towels.
- Take care with doorknobs, phones, cabinet, pens, ATMs, door handles, tablets, etc. Sharing of physical items spreads shares viruses.
- Wash your hands OFTEN and for longer than you think you should (best to time it is to sing Happy Birthday twice).
- Almost all face masks are not effective in blocking a virus, as they do not provide a barrier. Moisture builds upon the surface of the mask and creates an ideal breeding ground for the virus, but helps you remember you of the imminent dangers, to keep a safe distance and not to touch your face.
- Wearing gloves - there are many with allergies to latex and most do not know how to take them off and dispose of them properly.
Observations of How it Spreads
Transmission of the virus can occur even when you do not have symptoms. COVID-19 is easily mixed with air. When you sneeze or cough or even exhale the virus can enter the air space and travel up to two meters to others.
The virus is also present in faeces, which begs a focus on proper handwashing before and after any activities!
How Long Infectious?
No data is yet available to substantiated how long someone can infect others while they are asymptomatic (without symptoms).
Estimates now are as high as:
- 2 to 14 days before showing symptoms
- 14 to 24 days after you have recovered
- After recovery, a person can be reinfected as antibodies are not formed in response to the virus.
- Additionally, the virus seems to be transferred in pregnancy to the infant.
Most at Risk
Those actively engaged with working with those suspected of being infected are most vulnerable to becoming infected. In China, there are an estimated 1,700 (updated as of 15 February) health care workers infected. Also, at high risk are the elderly and the young.
Flu Season
This is also the 'normal flu' season, which is dangerous enough annually. However, no one understands how to manage and treat COVID-19, and because it spreads so easily between individuals and the death rate is so high.
Transmission Rate - R-nought Rate or 'R0'
The R-nought rate, which is shown as 'R0' refers to the likelihood of replication of the disease -- or how many people will be infected per infected person. Example:
- An R0 of one means one person to one more person
- An R0 rate of two means for every one individual infected two more will be infected.
At this point, COVID-19 cannot yet be calculated because China is unable/unwilling to calculate it. However, estimates from what is known believe it may eventually be as high as 4.5. To put this in perspective, the R0 of the 1918 Spanish Flu was less than two. The Spanish Flu killed an estimated 30-60 million individuals globally.
Gabriel Yung, dean of HK University Medical School, a worldwide expert on these new diseases, estimates this epidemic will become a full-fledged pandemic. Ultimately it will infect up to 60% of the world's population with a 1% mortality rate -- more than 100 million dead. But it is still early days.
In China today, the crematoriums are unable to receive more bodies because they can't keep up with the constant inflow right now.
NOTE: The end of this video speaks candidly about why there is not yet a vaccine or inoculation. Quite dire.
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DANGER:
Most protective gear is manufactured and imported FROM China. China has stopped exporting all medical support equipment. Most outlets are already out of these items. There is, at this point, no contingency plan (yet) for these supplies!
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