REALISTIC MATHS AND COVID-19

 Key Points

• Statistics about COVID-19 or effective treatment are not yet stable
• Without everyone taking personal care up to 31% of the world's population could be infected
• Of those who contract COVID-19, the prognosis is good
• There is an immediate and increasing need for planning and triaging the management of those diagnosed as positive for the virus
• Present 'over-the-top' care is not sustainable 
• Limited or lack of resources in some countries can contribute to the world's infection rates
• It is critical that developed countries plan how to better manage/stretch medical resources, to review diagnostic and isolation protocols now to ensure those who require focused critical care can find it.

Let's Get Real 

Returning to the overall stats about COVID-19 as we know them today (see previous segment) it is important to be realistic and not panic.  

The disease may have been active as early as mid-November with no monitoring or collecting of observed behaviours of patients. 

Even today the accuracy of data is not complete (but is growing more stable) but does offer hope if we act now, take sensible, self-precautions and do not panic into a 'walking dead' mode of behaviour.

At this stage, the estimates are that COVID-19 may infect up to 30% of the world's population.  Of those infected the breakdown continues to offer hope and optimism.

• 81% - Mild Cases - of those infected will contract a mild case.  Without the diagnostic test, the infection could seem just 'the flu'. 
• 10% to 14% - Critical cases - of those infected are at risk to ultimately be infected with a serious form of the virus. 
• 7% - Death rate - out of this population of critical cases result in death.

Critical Care and Isolation

Not all hospitals are large enough to have an intensive care unit.  If they do, it is small with only a few beds because each bed represents the ultimate of care.  The beds are usually full as new patients are moved in and out.  

Typically, for each patient is assigned dedicated doctors, nurses, specialist practitioners, all responsible for identifying diagnostic and treatment requirements.

Additionally, these critical patients need heart monitors, respirators/ventilators to manage breathing, multitudes of tubes and other monitoring and testing devices, etc.  There are requirements for radiologists, lab technicians, respiratory and physical therapists, dietitians and those who maintained feeding tubes, change linens, etc. and practical nursing care.

Early Days 

These are the early days with COVID-19, so the ratio of health care providers, infrastructure and equipment is easy to provide (although the run on masks is already causing concern for those on the front line of caring for these highly infectious patients).  

Researchers do not have the full picture of COVID-19, so each infected patient is put in isolation (a room of their own).  All necessary safety protocols and procedures for a highly-contagious disease have to be in place, monitored and documented for future discovery.  

Fresh protective gear, masks, gloves and goggles need to be used for every visit with the patient.  Every time a health care provider leaves a patient's room, they must dispose of the contaminated gear.  Everything going into and taken from their room needs extra care and handling to ensure the virus does not spread and so no additional dangers are introduced.

With the need to isolate each patients for at least 14 days, consider the number of beds available within each treatment facility -- they are limited as cost utilisation initiatives have been shrinking our health care capacity for decades.

Current Procedures Won't Continue - They Can't 

Today, when someone arrives at their doctor's, a clinic or hospital emergency room who is suspected of being infected with this new virus, they are being given 'over-the-top' care.  Each infected person is sort of a 'guinea pig' to be observed and case notes taken and shared to help when the next person presents.  

Of great concern, many countries are totally unprepared for any of this and the health care infrastructure, even basic hygiene is missing.  Even the countries who take pride in their preparedness will be surprised should the virus not be contained quickly. 

Consider the Costs

Right now, with so few patients it is possible to lavish care on each individual’s diagnosis, treatment, support and confinement from the moment they are identified as being infected.  The costs per patient at this stage would be astronomical (and well worth it). 

However, as more cases are identified, the ‘quantity’ of care will, of necessity have to lower as fewer health care providers will be available per infected individual.  Also, supportive care tools, instruments and devices will be dramatically stretched.   We are in the time to prepare.