Sunday, March 1, 2020

Necessity of Standard, Cumulative Global Statistics


The world seems to be in a 'blame someone mode'.  We must get real about the developments and implications of COVID-19 for our day-to-day lives. 

A roadblock is uncovering the facts during this time.  I've been following the various sources and reports about COVID-19 since mid-January and offer here some overview stats to consider as offering hope.


Stats of Progress of COVID-19

Estimates from the progress of the virus to date indicate that: 


  • 30% - Global infection - (up to, not more than) of the world population could be infected as it progresses.  
  • 81% - Mild Cases - of those infected, will contract a mild case.  Without the diagnostic test, the infection could seem just 'the flu'.  
  • 10% to 14% - Critical cases - of those infected are at risk to ultimately be infected with a serious form of the virus.  
  • 7% - Death rate - out of this population of critical cases result in death.


As the disease develops, some countries continue to work independently (believing they know best how to manage the disease).  Some are not forthcoming of the existence of the virus for political or commercial reasons.  


However, sharing information now is critical so the health providers the world relies upon are forewarned and forearmed.  Having and organising a complete picture of observations of symptoms and behaviours and accurate statistics would be invaluable.  


Reporting Bodies

There are credible reporting bodies collaborating and sharing information as it is available, but no ONE source for the global developments.  Some good resources are: 



Global Reporting Metrics


A global standard for metrics has not been established for COVID-19, yet.  There are some benefits in that it is early days with this virus and some unexpected general observation may prove to be worthy to monitor.  

Conclusion


Certainly, the memory of the 'Spanish Flu of 1918' has faded so far in the background and the health-arrogance and carelessness of the world means we were not ready for COVID-19.  But we will be!

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